This effort is already underway, with auto maker Tesla leading the way for electric vehicles.
However these new vehicles do nothing to check climate change unless the electricity and hydrogen power come from CO2-emission-free sources.
Surprisingly, a global fleet of electric vehicles would consume only about 3% of the total power needed to Electrify Our World.
The first popular hybrid vehicles had relatively small batteries. They did not plug in to charge up. All power was sourced from their gasoline engines, which turned on frequently to charge the batteries. When the engines turned on they ran at their most efficient speed and power, so gasoline mileage was pretty good.
Plug-in hybrids have medium-size batteries that can power the vehicle for short trips and require no fuel.
Fully electric vehicles must be recharged during trips over 400 km or so. One of Tesla’s big expenses is installing a network of Tesla-only recharging stations to cut range anxiety.
None of these EVs help check climate change much, unless the electricity is generated without CO2 emissions.
Tesla leads the electric vehicle market, but not the overall vehicle market. Statistica’s projection did not take into account legislation prohibiting internal combustion engine sales in the future. Growth barriers will be battery materials availability and enough charging stations.
Most chargers are not suited for mid-trip recharging.
Incompatibility is a basis of competition.
When planning an EV trip, only “fast” DC charging stations matter. Fast DC chargers bypass the vehicle’s onboard AC/DC converter. Even so, charging will take 20 to 30 minutes. This may limit EV growth.
Electricity sold by charging networks can be expensive. Tesla offered some free fill-ups to boost vehicle sales. Typical electricity sold to homeowners costs 10-20 cents/kWh.
Overnight home charging from the grid is the simplest, least expensive approach. Though a full charge of a depleted battery will take longer, most vehicle trips will be short enough not to fully deplete the battery. This thoughtful dealer explains why he installed a 240 volt charging system in his garage.
This is quite a lot of power transfer! Reducing demand for battery materials partially unblocks a barrier to EV penetration.
This could offer convenience for home charging, not having to remember to plug the car in.
This technology is in an early stage of development. Heavy trucks have heavy batteries that add to weight to be hauled, requiring more hauling power. In-road charging could eliminate 30 minute en route wait times for recharging stops.
Battery supplies are a competitive advantage. Tesla has its own battery factories.
The bottom of a Tesla is all batteries. The original Roadster has nearly a US ton of them. Materials supplies are a limiting factor to expanding battery production.
Cobalt mining is not high tech. There are concerns about children working as miners.
Supplies of both cobalt and lithium are tight, raising prices, limiting battery availability.
LFP means lithium-iron-phosphate.
There is intensive R&D to develop and use different battery technologies. Tesla may have a temporary cost advantage with LFP batteries perhaps dropping to a raw cost $100/kWh of storage capacity.
Two-wheeled vehicles are the bane of traffic in many cities. They are often the largest source of air pollution. I’ve taken such motorcycle taxis in Jakarta.
Transportation using India’s Hero electric scooters is cheaper than with petroleum fueled ones, after 3 years.
In Xi’an only electric motorbikes are permitted.
The math; 280 billion kWh/year, divide by 365 days/year, divide by 24 hours/day, get ~ 32 GW average power.
More math: 32 GW power for 120 million vehicles, get ~ 250 watts, average power use per vehicle. They are not always moving, of course.
Let’s plan on powering 1 billion electric vehicles @ 250 watts. That’s 250 GW power demand altogether. I bumped it up to 300 GW for the Grand Strategy, to take some account of motorbikes and other such uses.
Crude oil is refined into several product classes.
Middle distillates in the left hand bars includes diesel fuel for trucks.
Motor gasoline is represented in the second pair of bars. The 1136 million tonnes per year creates a power stream of 1700 GW (thermal). That’s a lot less than the 300 GW (electric) if we convert to an all-electric world auto fleet.
The LPG naptha bars include propane and butane. Aviation fuel is self-explanatory.
Residual fuel oil includes #6 oil such as Dartmouth burns in its heating plant and “bunkers” burned by ocean-going ships.
Making electrified transportation cheaper than gasoline-powered is critical to Electrifying Our World. This depends on the prices of electricity, which are set discouragingly high in some states seeking revenue to fund special interests, for example:
- California 16.9 cents/kWh
- Massachusetts 18.4
- Texas 8.6
- Washington 8.0
Hydrogen vehicles were hyped during the George W. Bush presidency. Hydrogen vehicles are electric in a sense. They use hydrogen fuel-cells to generate electricity to power wheel motors at fuel to wheel kinetic energy efficiency near 50%, higher than a gasoline vehicle’s ~ 20% efficiency.
An internal combustion engine will be less efficient than a fuel-cell and electric motor.
Honda was one of the first automakers to offer a hydrogen-fueled vehicle.
The onboard battery provides bursts of electric energy so the car can accelerate quickly.
A drawback for hydrogen vs battery power is the 10% compression loss or 35% liquefaction loss implied by this diagram.
The 20% transport/transfer loss can be mitigated if the electrolysis takes place at the refueling station, as NEL Hydrogen products offer. The 25% electrolysis loss would be only 5% according to the projections of Lucid Catalyst. This might bring vehicle-wheel-delivered kWh to 32 kWh for compressed hydrogen fuel-cell power, compared to 69 kWh for battery delivered power.
The limitation on battery-powered EVs is the technical materials required to make batteries.
Trucks, trains, island electric generators, and industrial equipment use diesel fuel. The world uses more diesel than gasoline fuel.
I used to think that a 1 GW(e) electric power plant was a massive energy source. Then I realized that oil refineries are much larger energy exporters. There are nine even bigger ones now.
From the IEA data on the bar chart, it looks as if the China market opportunity for electric buses has already saturated. McKinsey points out that buses are the most successful EV market segment.
Aside: Please remember this is of no help in checking global warming unless the electricity is generated without producing CO2 emissions.
A 300 mile range for a heavy bus is an ambitious goal.
Texas’ Broward County Transit (BCT) has agreed to purchase 12 Proterra ZX5 battery-electric transit buses with 660 kWh onboard energy storage for dual motors delivering 400 kW. Proterra has sold 1000 buses.
Battery powered delivery vehicles are economical for short trips with overnight charging.
Battery electric trucks are feasible for sort-haul transport. Long distance, heavy transport is more challenging.
Just 300 GW should power the world’s individual electric vehicles.
Tesla leads the electric vehicle industry in US and EU, but BYD produces twice as many EVs in China. All auto companies are developing competitive EVs because their mainstream internal combustion engine vehicles may be banned, taxed, or discouraged.
On average, the grid will only have to provide 250 watts per vehicle. At 10 cents/kWh that’s just $220 per year for energy.
Battery technology is a basis of competition, important for cost, lifetime, weight, and fire safety.
Battery material sources can not meet projected demand, so other materials are sought.
Inductive charging may permit frequent or continuous battery recharging, reducing the limiting demand for technical metals for batteries.
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can be competitive where heavy batteries overburden truck hauling capability.
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